Climate Change and Migration
1. Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. Other coping and adaptation strategies include changing the household’s sources of livelihood, and selling assets or taking other emergency measures in cases of losses due to extreme weather events. Yet while there is a burgeoning literature on climate change and migration and other adaptation strategies worldwide,
the evidence available for the MENA region remains limited, in part because of a lack of survey and other data. This chapter is based in large part on new data collected in 2011 in Algeria, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Morocco, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen. Household surveys were implemented in two
climate-affected areas in each country. In addition, qualitative focus groups were also implemented in both urban and rural areas. Finally, complementary work was completed using existing data sources for Morocco and the Republic of Yemen. The chapter provides a summary of some of the main findings from these various sources of
data, focusing on household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events, migration, other household coping and adaptation strategies, and government and community responses. Overall, households do perceive important changes in the climate, and many have been affected by extreme weather events with resulting losses in income, crops, livestock, or fish catchment. The coping and adaptation strategies
used by households to deal with shocks are diverse but limited, as are the community and government programs which could help households better cope with and adapt to climate change. In terms of migration, in the areas affected by climate change and weather shocks, the analysis suggests that climate factors may account for
between one tenth and one fifth of the overall level of migration observed today, but this is likely to increase as climatic conditions continue to deteriorate. While migrants appreciate the opportunities that migration offer, their living conditions and ability robe well integrated in their areas of destination is far from being guaranteed
Introduction
By the next century, global mean annual temperatures may increase by 3°C to5°C. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region this may manifest itself through reduced rainfall, greater seasonal temperature variability, and a risen the Mediterranean Sea level, all of which constitute threats to agricultural
production and economic security (Verner 2012). Agriculture employs about half of the active population in many countries, especially among the poor.Declining precipitation is likely to affect availability and usage of water, causing agricultural productivity to decrease (UNDP 2009; World Bank 2010). Climate
change is also associated with a higher likelihood of extreme temperatures,floods, and droughts, and thereby with health risks as well as risks of substantial displacement (for example, Elisha 2010; IPCC 2012; McSweeney, New, candlelit 2009).1
Estimates of the number of people likely to be affected by climate change and the extent to which they are likely to be affected are notoriously difficult to provide (Foresight 2011). But in the MENA region as a whole, some 80–100 million people may be expected to experience water stress by 2025 (Warren et al.
2006). By 2050 water availability per capita is expected to decline by 50 percent.Furthermore, while the literature is mixed on this issue, aside from the economic impacts climate change may be associated with local conflict as groups compete
for access to scarce natural resources (Nordics and Gleditsch 2007; Reuveny2007). Some of the evidence in this chapter does point in that direction. Climate change also presents unique gender challenges. MENA migrants, whether internal or external, are overwhelmingly male, so that women are left to assume the
burden of increased workload at the place of origin. And for those women who do migrate, job opportunities tend to be less attractive than those for their male counterparts. This study focuses on the link between climate change and migration.Migration is considered as one of several coping and adaptation mechanisms used by households. It responds to both push and pull factors. Changes in the climate(for example, warming temperatures, heat waves, declining rain fall, and rising water levels) are part of push factors because they lead to a deterioration of the environment. Extreme climactic conditions, such as weather shocks like severe floods or droughts, can lead to temporary migration and displacement. Climate and subsequent environmental degradation decreases agricultural crop production,livestock, or water availability, which adversely affects economic activity. By contrast pull factors are those conditions that attract migrants or potential migrants, mainly to urban areas. They also shape and guide human choice. Thisthe existence of economic opportunities such as employment, well-established community networks that help reduce uncertainty and risk, and available housing may all be variables that pull migrants to a particular area. Schools, healthcare, electricity, clean water, functioning sewage systems, and other infrastructural features inform decisions as well.
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