Climate-Induced Migration in the MENA Region: Results from the Qualitative Fieldwork
Introduction
The MENA region is experiencing warmer temperatures and precipitation levels are falling. Adverse extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and severity in coming decades. As a result of its impact on the environment,climate change has significant effects on economic outcomes. In many MENA countries—including those that are the focus of this study—economic growth and poverty levels are strongly influenced by agriculture and agricultural late activity. For example, about three fourths of Morocco’s poor depend on agriculture for their livelihood. This population lives on land with poor agricultural potential which is sensitive to changes in rainfall. While agriculture in Morocco represents only one seventh of gross domestic product (GDP), it employs almost half of the labor force.accounts for a similar share of GDP and employs 55 percent of the labor force.In the Arab Republic of Egypt also, agriculture represents only one seventh of GDP, but it employs 55 percent of the labor force. In the Syrian Arab Republic,45 percent of the population works in agriculture, and the country is on the verge of water poverty, against the backdrop of declining rainfall and a decline in the availability of agricultural land as well as rising temperatures (MSEA 2010;Qabbani 2010; el Attache 2009). Such trends are evident throughout the MENA region where it is estimated that overall, 80–100 million people may experience water stress by 2025 (Warren et al. 2006). By 2050 water availability per capitals expected to decline by 50 percent versus current levels and declining precipitations likely to reduce further the availability of agricultural land and its productivity,thereby endangering the livelihood of millions of households (UNDP2009).1As vulnerable rural populations attempt to cope with new and challenging circumstances, various strategies are at their disposal. Individuals or households may eat less, sell assets, remove children from school, or they may migrate as one of a number of strategic choices. Migration is indeed a common means of dealing with risks from the environment. But the extent to which climate change affects migration is unclear, because migration is affected by multiple push and pull factors.Push factors do include changes in the climate such as warming temperatures,heat waves, declining rainfall, and also floods, among others. These events act as catalysts for migration from rural to urban areas or to other countries,whether temporarily or permanently. This is because climate and subsequent environmental degradation decrease agricultural crop production, as well as livestock or water availability, which adversely affects economic activity. But pull factors that may have nothing to do with climate change also influence migration.The existence of economic opportunities such as employment, well-established community networks that help reduce uncertainty and risk, and housing in urban areas may all be variables that pull migrants to a particular area independently of changes in the climate. The possibility of better access to schools,health care, electricity, and possibly clean water and functioning sewage system sin urban areas also influences the decisions of some migrants to leave.There is unfortunately a dearth of rigorous analysis on climate change and migration to better understand the impact of climate change on human mobility in the MENA region. This is not only the case for quantitative analysis, but also for qualitative analysis. For a brief review of the literature which informs this chapter, see the introduction of chapter 1 by Wodon et al. (2014) and chapter 2on the five countries of focus for this work by Burger et al. (2014a) in this study.As a complement to the quantitative analysis conducted in other chapters, the goal of this chapter is to contribute to a more in-depth or “thicker” understanding of the complex relationships between climate change, environmental degradation,and migration than is feasible through statistics and (reduced form) econometric analysis. The chapter seeks to illustrate the precarious conditions rural communities face as a result of climate-induced environmental degradation,
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