Focus Countries and Data
Introduction
This study is about the impact of climate change on households, their coping mechanisms and their adaptation strategies, and especially migration. Migration decisions are influenced by a wide range of considerations related to climate change, including the risks of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts and the destruction they may cause, as well as the indirect effects of these and other events, such as lower agricultural yields, lack of water, and the health effects of excess temperatures. Understanding how climate change may impact migration is important to inform not only government and other programs to help households cope with and adapt to climate change but also a wide range of investment decisions which must anticipate future patterns of mobility and settlements. Yet to-date relatively little is known about the extent to which households are affected by climate change in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA) region, and whether climate change and extreme weather events haves large impact on migration decisions.While this study aims to be relevant for the MENA region as a whole, it focuses on five countries—Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen. In that context, the objective of this chapter is twofold. First, the chapter lays out the reasons that led to the choice of the five focus countries. The aim was to select countries which (1) had a large population to ensure that findings from the study to be illustrative (but not representative) of the relationships between climate change and migration for a large share of the MENA population;
(2) were affected by changes in weather patterns and the environment,especially in terms of the frequency of droughts; (3) represented a wide array of socioeconomic contexts in terms of the countries’ levels of development, outwith an emphasis on some of the poorer countries where the impact of climate change on households may be largest; (4) had other available data sources such as other household surveys or census data which could be used for complementary
analysis.1
Second, the chapter provides contextual background information on each of the five countries selected for the study. Information is provided first on traditional patterns of international and domestic migration in each country, and sexton some of the challenges that the country is facing regarding climate change swell as the institutional framework in which policies related to climate change are being considered, and some of the programs and policies that have been adopted by the government as well as by nongovernmental actors in this area.The structure of the chapter is as follows. Section two outlines the reasons that led to the choice of the five focus countries. The next five sections provide contextual background for the study on each of the five focus countries. A brief conclusion follows.Criteria for the Choice of Focus Countries As mentioned in the introduction, four criteria guided the choice of the focus countries in which new data were collected. This section explains and reviews each of these four criteria.Consider first population size. Table 2.1 provides population data for the top10 Arab countries by population size as of July 2012 according to UN estimates,as well as other variables such as population growth. Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco are the three most populated countries in the region, and are part of our sample of focus countries. The Republic of Yemen and Syria rank seventh and eighth on the list. We did not choose Iraq because of the ongoing tensions within the country.Sudan was not selected because administratively, it belongs to the Sub-Saharan Africa region of the World Bank, and not to the Middle East and North Africa Region. Saudi Arabia was not considered because it is much wealthier(and less agrarian) than the other countries, and thereby has much more resource sat its disposal to cope with and adapt to climate change. The Islamic Republic of Iran is not listed in table 2.1 because it is usually not considered as an Arab
country.2
Consider next vulnerability to climate change. As will be clear in subsequent chapters, while some households in the areas of focus of the study have been orate likely to be affected by floods, many more are affected by droughts. Without downplaying the threat of floods, the population affected by droughts is much larger. An analysis of vulnerability to droughts with a special focus on Syria, but with comparative data for other Accoutrements was recently conducted by the-Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands and the United Nations Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Regional Office for Arab States (ACSAD and ISDR 2011). On the basis of data on drought frequency and consecutive droughts, the authors estimate that 69.1percent of the area of the Arab region is not vulnerable to droughts, 14.45 percent has a low level of vulnerability, 10.98 percent is moderately vulnerable and5.47 percent is highly vulnerable.As shown in table 2.2, some of the countries most vulnerable to droughts area Syria (especially the north eastern area), Sudan (southern area), Tunisia (northern area), Algeria (northern area), Morocco (northern area), Somalia (north eastern area), Iraq (north eastern area), Saudi Arabia (north eastern area), and the Republic of Yemen. The focus countries were chosen in part in order to represent conditions in different parts of the region, with Algeria and Morocco being part of the Maghreb, Egypt belonging to the Central Region, Syria located in thrasher and the Republic of Yemen located in the Arabian Peninsula. Four of the countries are among the most vulnerable to droughts in the region, and Egypt was chosen as the largest country in the Central Region and more generally in the Arab world, as discussed earlier. The ACSAD-ISDR study also emphasizes the fact that the drought vulnerable areas tend to be highly populated, with an estimated54.69 million people living in areas under high stress from drought vulnerability,and another 91.3 million in areas moderately vulnerable to droughts.Consider third levels of socioeconomic development. The principle guiding because these countries tend to have fewer means at their disposal than counterinsurgencies to be able to cope with and adapt to climate change (counterinsurgencies are also of course affected by climate change, and often undramatic ways, but their resources make it easier to protect the population from some of the damaging effects of extreme weather shocks). Also, middle- and low income countries are more likely than high-income countries to have net emigration flows internationally.
No comments