Impacts, Coping Strategies,and Adaptation Mechanisms
Introduction
Climate change is expected to result in an increase in global temperatures by3°C to 5°C in this century, as well as in a reduction in rainfall and greater seasonal temperature and rainfall variability in many areas. Higher sea levels are also a threat to many areas, including in the MENA region where a large share of its population is located in low lying areas. With agriculture remaining essential for livelihood in the region, and existing conditions in terms of water scarcity being already precarious in many areas, climate change represents a significant concern for households (Verner 2012; see also World Bank 2010 and Foresight2011). Expectations are that extreme weather events such as floods and droughts are likely to become more frequent, which has implications for coping and adaptation mechanisms, as well as internal and international migration (forexample, UNDP 2009; World Bank 2010; Elasha 2010; IPCC 2012; McSweeney,New, and Lizcano 2009). For a brief review of the literature which informs this chapter, see the introduction of chapter 1 by Wodon et al. (2014) and chapter2 on the five countries of focus for this work by Burger et al. (2014a), both in this study.This chapter focuses on household perceptions regarding climate change, the impact of extreme weather events, and the ways through which households cope with such events. More specifically, the chapter looks at four main questions: (1)What are the perceptions of households in the Middle East and North Africa Region regarding changes in the climate of the areas where they live?; (2) To what extent are households affected by extreme weather events such as droughts or floods and who tends to suffer the most from such events when they occur?;and (3) How do households cope with extreme weather events? The chapter suggests answers to these questions on the basis of new household survey data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen(see Burger et al. 2014a, 2014b). The household surveys were implemented into climate affected areas in each country with only slight modifications in the survey instrument based on country-specific context. The survey took approximated two hours to administer and it was designed to elicit household perceptions of climate change and environmental degradation, self-assessed economic loss, and coping strategies, among others.Overall, households do perceive important negative changes in the climate, for example with droughts becoming more frequent, or rainfall more erratic. While many households declare being affected by extreme weather events, with resulting losses in income, crops, livestock, or fish catchment, this is especially the case of the poor who appear to suffer the most. As far as coping mechanisms are concerned,again the poor ten do have fewer options than better off households.While none of the findings are unexpected, they do confirm that the poor tend robe most affected by extreme weather events that are likely to become more frequent with climate change, while they also have fewer means to cope with such events. It must however be emphasized that the household survey results are not meant to be representative of the five countries in which the work was carried,since only a few areas were surveyed in each country. It must also be recognisance it is difficult to distinguish the separate effects of climate change, environmental change, and weather shocks on households, and to separate short-term versus long-term household responses. This is especially the case when working with cross-sectional household surveys given that shorter-term events may be consistent with, but need not necessarily be reflective of longer-term climate change.These caveats being stated, the chapter is organized as follows. Section two introduces the data used for the analysis. Section three discusses household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events. Section four provides evidence on the impact of changes in weather patterns and the environment.A brief conclusion follows.
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