Perceptions of Climate Change
Do households believe that changes in weather patterns and their environment are taking place in the five countries? Before answering that question, it unimportant mention a caveat to the analysis. Perceptions of changes in weather patterns need not mean that weather patterns are actually changing or that climate change is actually occurring. In addition, while the questions were asked over the last five years, it could be that household responses reflect perceptions that have matured over a longer period of time. The reason why the questions were asked about the last five years is that household recall of weather patterns is likely to be more accurate over that period than over long er periods of time. As to the reliance on data on perceptions, even if they may not always reflect reality very well (the issue of recall adds to that), they are still an important entry point in trying to understand how changes in weather patterns of the environment affect household livelihoods, and how households respond to such events. In fact, at least to some extent, one might argue that decision'son how to cope with and adapt to changes in weather patterns and the environment may be influenced as much by how households and individuals perceive those changes than by the events themselves. Thus the information is valuable.Household perceptions about changes in weather patterns and the environment have been ranked in table 4.1 according to the share of households sharing these perceptions (that is, answering “yes”) in the five-country sample. More than three fourths of households in the combined sample (77.5 percent) declare that rain has become more erratic, and almost three quarters (72.4 percent) declares that temperatures have increased. Between half and two thirds of households declare that there is less rain today than five years ago, that the land is dryer or less fertile, that the rainy season starts later, is shorter, or ends earlier, and that droughts are more frequent. Households also believe that the diseases are increasing for animals and livestock, that there are more insects and pets in crops,less water in boreholes, rivers, lakes or streams, more air pollution, more frequent crop failures and livestock loss, and more soil erosion.A few of the extreme weather events often associated with climate change,such as rain storms and floods, are however not perceived as more frequent by majority of households, but even for those events, almost half of respondents mention that they have increased in frequency (these events tend to be morelocalized, so it is to be expected that a smaller share of the sample would reportthem, which does not necessarily mean that they are less frequent). Some householdsdo suggest that temperatures are becoming cooler (this is the case foralmost half of the sample), and that there is actually more rain, but this is oftenthe case only for a minority of households, and the overall picture that emergesis that of negative perceptions of changes in weather patterns and the environment,generally toward a dryer climate.Basic statistics are also provided in table 4.1 on perceptions by country, andaccording to the welfare level of households. The welfare quintiles are based on anindex of wealth estimated through factorial analysis, as often done in the absenceof data on consumption. The quintiles are based on an index of wealth estimatedthrough factorial analysis, as often done in the absence of good data on consumption.There are clear differences between countries in perceptions, as expected. In Syria, virtually all households declare that most of the changed in weather patterns
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